Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
